Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, combined with AEMET guidance, point to a peak temperature in Madrid on June 13 centered near 34–35 °C under strengthening high pressure and southerly flow that favors clear skies and daytime radiative heating. This positioning reflects the current 850 hPa temperature anomalies and limited cloud cover expected during the diurnal maximum. Small differences among leading outcomes arise from uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, local wind shifts, and exact timing of any thin high clouds, which can alter surface energy balance by 1–2 °C. Historical June maxima in Madrid average near 30 °C, so the current setup represents a modest warm anomaly. Traders are closely watching the next model cycles and official 48-hour updates, as even modest adjustments in subsidence or advection could shift the most probable bin.