Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts point to a high near 67–70°F in San Francisco on July 4, driven by a strengthening marine layer and onshore sea breezes that typically cap coastal maxima during early July. High pressure building inland is expected to enhance the afternoon gradient, drawing cooler Pacific air while allowing partial clearing east of Twin Peaks, where readings may briefly reach the low 70s. This setup explains the market’s emphasis on the 70–71°F bin, reflecting trader assessment of microclimate variability and historical analogs showing reduced fog frequency over holiday weekends. Updated model runs through tonight will refine the exact peak before resolution.