Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models point to a peak temperature of 33–34°C in Incheon on August 3, driven by a dominant high-pressure ridge, light winds, and typical early-August humidity exceeding 70 percent that amplifies sensible heat. These conditions align closely with historical climatology for the Seoul metro area, where urban heat-island effects often add 1–2°C above rural baselines. Minor model spreads in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes, while probabilities decline sharply above 35°C absent an unexpected warm advection event. Updated KMA short-range guidance and afternoon observations on August 2 will provide the next key inputs for resolution.