Recent Central Weather Administration outlooks and ensemble model runs point to a building subtropical ridge supporting daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius for Taipei on June 29, aligning with the tight 32–34 °C cluster that dominates trader pricing. Key variables include the strength and position of the Western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates solar heating and moisture advection, versus the timing and coverage of afternoon convective showers that can cap maximum temperatures by several degrees through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Historical June climatology shows typical maxima near 31–32 °C, so current guidance above average reflects drier conditions expected after an early-month wet spell, though model spread on boundary-layer moisture and sea-breeze effects keeps the three leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.