**Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a daily maximum near 22–23°C in Warsaw on October 8, positioning these as the market leaders at 28.5% and 46.5% implied probability.** Southerly winds and a mild air mass are expected to push temperatures several degrees above the early-October climatological average of roughly 12–13°C, with light rain possible but limited impact on peak readings. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with modest upside risk to 24°C (22.5%) if afternoon heating exceeds current projections. Resolution hinges on official station observations, and any late-model shifts could adjust the narrow 22–24°C window that dominates trader consensus.