**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds. A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHighest temperature in Wellington on July 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 4?
14°C 69%
13°C 31%
15°C 3.0%
16°C <1%
নতুন
$46,076 Vol.
নতুন
$46,076 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
31%
14°C
69%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 69%
13°C 31%
15°C 3.0%
16°C <1%
নতুন
$46,076 Vol.
নতুন
$46,076 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
8°C or below
$3,098 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,767 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,721 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$4,541 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$6,886 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$3,899 Vol.
31%
14°C
$8,514 Vol.
69%
15°C
$4,127 Vol.
3%
16°C
$1,593 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5,163 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$2,823 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds.
A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ভলিউম
$46,076শেষ তারিখ
Jul 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds.
A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$46,076শেষ তারিখ
Jul 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds. A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা