Elevated early-season tornado reports, exceeding year-to-date averages by roughly 200 events through mid-May 2026, anchor trader expectations for a total exceeding 1,250. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including enhanced wind shear and convective available potential energy fueled by Gulf moisture and residual La Niña patterns, have driven multiple outbreaks across the central and southern Plains. NOAA data show this pace aligns with higher-activity La Niña years, while peak months of May and June remain ahead. Historical U.S. averages hover near 1,100–1,200 annually, but recent model consensus and observed instability support the market-implied tilt toward an above-normal finish.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 81%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
1050–1099 3.5%
$72,212 Vol.
$72,212 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
3%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
10%
1250+
81%
1250+ 81%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
1050–1099 3.5%
$72,212 Vol.
$72,212 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,427 Vol.
3%
950–999
$2,976 Vol.
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,650 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
10%
1250+
$16,681 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early-season tornado reports, exceeding year-to-date averages by roughly 200 events through mid-May 2026, anchor trader expectations for a total exceeding 1,250. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including enhanced wind shear and convective available potential energy fueled by Gulf moisture and residual La Niña patterns, have driven multiple outbreaks across the central and southern Plains. NOAA data show this pace aligns with higher-activity La Niña years, while peak months of May and June remain ahead. Historical U.S. averages hover near 1,100–1,200 annually, but recent model consensus and observed instability support the market-implied tilt toward an above-normal finish.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
ভলিউম
$72,212শেষ তারিখ
Jan 10, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early-season tornado reports, exceeding year-to-date averages by roughly 200 events through mid-May 2026, anchor trader expectations for a total exceeding 1,250. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including enhanced wind shear and convective available potential energy fueled by Gulf moisture and residual La Niña patterns, have driven multiple outbreaks across the central and southern Plains. NOAA data show this pace aligns with higher-activity La Niña years, while peak months of May and June remain ahead. Historical U.S. averages hover near 1,100–1,200 annually, but recent model consensus and observed instability support the market-implied tilt toward an above-normal finish.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ভলিউম
$72,212শেষ তারিখ
Jan 10, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated early-season tornado reports, exceeding year-to-date averages by roughly 200 events through mid-May 2026, anchor trader expectations for a total exceeding 1,250. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including enhanced wind shear and convective available potential energy fueled by Gulf moisture and residual La Niña patterns, have driven multiple outbreaks across the central and southern Plains. NOAA data show this pace aligns with higher-activity La Niña years, while peak months of May and June remain ahead. Historical U.S. averages hover near 1,100–1,200 annually, but recent model consensus and observed instability support the market-implied tilt toward an above-normal finish.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা