US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying or rendering inaccessible much of Tehran's highly enriched uranium stockpile while limiting IAEA access and halting enrichment activities. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding reinforced Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic pressure and sanctions. These setbacks have substantially extended Iran's breakout timeline according to assessments from US intelligence and nuclear experts, sustaining trader consensus that acquisition before 2027 remains unlikely. Potential shifts could arise from material recovery at damaged sites, accelerated reconstruction at locations like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership-driven policy changes, or disruptions to monitoring and ceasefire arrangements.