Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key facilities including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while the IAEA withdrew inspectors amid safety concerns, leaving the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and any rebuilding efforts uncertain. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding included Iran's reaffirmation against developing nuclear weapons, alongside stalled enrichment activities and ongoing diplomatic talks focused on verification and limits. These military and diplomatic developments, combined with the brief remaining window before 2027, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% probability for "No." Credible shifts remain possible if Iran regains access to undamaged material, inspections resume without constraints, or negotiations collapse amid renewed escalation.