US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate limited damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent US strikes under Operation Epic Fury in February, leaving the program's overall capacity intact and the timeline to produce a nuclear weapon unchanged at 9-12 months if Tehran decided to pursue one. The intelligence community maintains Iran has not reauthorized its suspended weaponization efforts since 2003, with IAEA reports confirming no structured program despite high enriched uranium stockpiles and restricted access amid the US-Iran conflict. Ongoing diplomatic talks, where Iran has softened its stance by agreeing to discuss nuclear limits, further reflect trader consensus on de-escalation signals outweighing breakout risks before year's end, pricing "No" at 91%.