Following Ali Khamenei's 2026 death, the @khamenei_ir account has shifted to posting archival statements of the martyred leader, with volume tied to Iran's diplomatic calendar rather than new commentary. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, suspended or conditional on Lebanon ceasefire progress and asset releases, plus related regional tensions create variable incentives for selective releases that could cluster in low double digits or stay minimal. The near-even distribution across bins around 25% each reflects trader uncertainty over the precise timing and intensity of any June developments within the narrow resolution window, where stalled negotiations or incremental diplomatic signals could shift activity without a clear directional catalyst.