The recall referendum that ousted Civic Coalition mayor Aleksander Miszalski on 24 May has produced a fragmented field for the 27 September first-round vote, with candidates including independents such as Łukasz Gibała, party-backed contenders from KO, PiS and Confederation, and several lower-profile entrants. This breadth, combined with Poland’s two-round system, has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered as no single name has consolidated broad support ahead of the campaign’s intensification. Recent candidate registrations and early positioning have not yet produced decisive polling separation, leaving trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns, potential runoff pairings, and last-minute alignments among right-leaning or centrist voters.