Katharina Pötter, the incumbent CDU Oberbürgermeisterin since 2021, entered the September 27 runoff as the clear frontrunner after securing 42.2 percent in the September 13 first round—nearly double the 22.3 percent posted by Green challenger Volker Bajus, with the remaining candidates trailing further behind. Her commanding position stems from strong name recognition, a broad appeal campaign emphasizing economic strength and continuity, and the structural advantage of facing a single opponent in a head-to-head contest where many first-round supporters of eliminated candidates are expected to consolidate behind the established officeholder. Traders price the outcome at these levels because historical patterns in similar German municipal runoffs favor incumbents with such margins, though a sharp drop in turnout, unexpected endorsements, or late developments in the brief inter-round period could still narrow the gap.