Recent model runs from sources like the GFS and Open-Meteo show Ankara's October 12 overnight low likely settling near 11–13 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and a shift to southeasterly flow, keeping surface temperatures above the long-term climatological minimum of roughly 6 °C. This baseline supports the market's elevated 50 % implied probability on 8 °C or below, reflecting trader caution over possible model under-forecasting of radiational cooling under clearing skies or a stronger cold-air advection event. Ensemble spread remains wide for the 48-hour window, with some members dipping to single digits while others hold near 14 °C; the next 12–24 hours of updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service guidance will likely tighten that range and drive the sharpest repricing.