Forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's October 11 low centers on the strength and timing of any cold-air intrusion from northern China versus lingering subtropical warmth. Model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show variability in surface pressure patterns and wind direction, with some guidance favoring highs near 28–30°C that would support a low of 26°C or above, while others indicate a sharper drop if a front arrives earlier. Historical October lows average near 20–22°C, but interannual swings of 5–7°C occur with monsoon transitions. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 26°C-plus and sub-16°C brackets because resolution hinges on the precise minimum reading, and small forecast shifts in dew-point or cloud cover could swing outcomes across multiple bins. Updated model guidance expected within 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.