The closely bunched probabilities around 24–26°C reflect genuine forecast uncertainty two days out during an exceptional heatwave, with Météo-France noting that Atlantic cooling may begin Friday but remains unconfirmed in latest model runs. Daytime highs have already reached or approached 40°C midweek under clear, high-pressure conditions, keeping overnight minima elevated near 26°C in recent guidance; any earlier or stronger influx of cooler maritime air could drop the 24-hour minimum into the low- to mid-20s, while slower relief would favor 27–28°C. Ensemble spread in European and global models centers on the exact timing and strength of this transition, with historical June minima averaging far lower (~12–14°C) but providing little analog value under the current synoptic setup. Updated Météo-France and ECMWF runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader consensus.