**Market-implied odds show a near-even split between 10°C and 8°C as the lowest temperature in Wellington today, with 7°C also competitive, reflecting tight scientific uncertainty in overnight minimums.** Forecast models diverge on the exact low amid a shift to strong southerly winds behind a cold front, which advects cooler maritime air while widespread rain enhances evaporative cooling and cloud cover limits radiative warming. Historical October averages hover near 10–11°C for minima, but current conditions—with temperatures already dipping into the 9–12°C range overnight per multiple runs and gusty winds up to 30–50 km/h—create a narrow band where small timing or intensity differences in the frontal passage tip the outcome. Official MetService and international model consensus points to a minimum near 9–10°C, yet variability in local observations and wind-driven mixing keeps the 8°C threshold viable. Traders are closely watching final evening and early-morning readings for resolution.