**Jess Wilson holds the strongest position in the "Next Premier of Victoria" market at 64.5%, reflecting trader consensus on her status as Liberal leader ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election.** Recent polling (Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, Redbridge/Accent) shows the Coalition under Wilson maintaining or extending a lead over Labor, with primary votes typically in the mid-to-high 20s for the Coalition versus the low-to-mid 20s for Labor, alongside a competitive One Nation presence around 22-26%. Wilson consistently leads preferred-premier measures (often 43-34 or better versus Ben Carroll), benefiting from positive personal ratings while Carroll’s remain net negative despite improvement over Jacinta Allan’s record lows. The July 28, 2026 Labor leadership transition—Allan’s resignation followed by Carroll’s unopposed election as premier after a brief challenge from Sonya Kilkenny—has not produced a sustained polling bounce for Labor. Traders price in the election outcome as the decisive event, with Wilson’s established profile as opposition leader since November 2025, combined with Coalition momentum on cost-of-living, debt, and crime issues, outweighing Labor’s incumbency advantages. Lower-priced alternatives such as Carroll (18.5%), Warren Pickering (5.5%), and others reflect limited paths to victory outside a major polling reversal before election day.