Pakistan’s ongoing cross-border military operations against suspected TTP and allied militant sanctuaries in eastern and southern Afghanistan remain the central driver of trader assessments. A September 18 suicide attack in Kohat that killed 31 people, claimed by the Ittehad ul Mujahideen Pakistan alliance, prompted Pakistani airstrikes on targets in Kunar, Paktika, and other provinces on September 21 and 24, followed by additional strikes on October 1 that Pakistan said killed 22 fighters. Afghanistan reported civilian casualties and responded with drone incursions and border fire, while Pakistan’s army chief reaffirmed on October 2 that targeted self-defense strikes would continue. The pattern reflects sustained Pakistani pressure on the Taliban government to curb cross-border militancy, amid repeated but short-lived mediation efforts and temporary lulls in fighting.