SpaceX's ongoing Starship test campaign, including the July 2026 Flight 13 with V3 architecture upgrades for enhanced avionics and Raptor engine relights, underpins the 70.5% market-implied odds for full reusability by 2028. Both Super Heavy booster and upper-stage ship have achieved controlled returns and partial catches in prior flights, demonstrating core hardware for tower-based recovery, though heat shield durability and rapid turnaround remain key technical barriers. Recent statements from leadership highlight 2026 targets for demonstrating booster and ship reuse in the same mission, aligning with SpaceX's iterative development pace seen in Falcon 9. Traders appear to weigh these milestones against historical timeline slippage and unresolved challenges like in-space propellant transfer, positioning the outcome as likely but not assured before the deadline.