Starship's market-implied 65% probability for no full reusability before 2027 stems primarily from persistent engineering hurdles with upper-stage reentry and tower catch, even as SpaceX prepares Starship V3 for its debut Flight 12 around May 19. Recent static-fire tests and structural upgrades to Raptor 3 engines, hot-staging hardware, and grid fins signal progress toward rapid reuse of the Super Heavy booster, already demonstrated in prior flights. Yet the integrated ship recovery—essential for true end-to-end reusability—remains unproven under orbital conditions, with timelines historically slipping. Traders appear focused on the narrow 2026 window for multiple successful catch-and-reuse cycles before regulatory and technical milestones like Artemis support further compress the schedule.