SpaceX’s rapid Falcon 9 cadence, fueled by reusable booster turnarounds and a steady Starlink deployment schedule, continues to drive trader consensus toward 140–179 total orbital launches in 2026. As of mid-May the company has already completed 50 missions this year, maintaining a pace of three to four launches per week from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg. Starship’s ongoing test program, with Flight 12 slated for late May and subsequent Block 3 vehicles in development, introduces upside potential once regulatory and technical milestones are cleared. Historical Falcon 9 reliability above 95 percent and the absence of major delays from range constraints or supply-chain issues support sustained high frequency, while any extended Starship grounding or weather-related stand-downs at the two primary sites remain the primary variables that could shift the distribution toward the lower or higher brackets.