NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential Earth impacts over the next century, currently lists no near-Earth objects with credible collision probabilities for 2026, let alone those capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy—equivalent to a major nuclear detonation and roughly the scale of the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide but larger. This absence of tracked threats, combined with comprehensive monitoring by telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detecting over 99% of kilometer-class hazards and most 140-meter objects, underpins the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No." Recent safe close approaches by small asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 GA2 in May affirm ongoing planetary defense efficacy, while record fireball reports this year remain sub-megaton. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an undetected 40-meter-class NEO on a precise trajectory, improbable given survey improvements, with daily CNEOS updates providing the next catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$106,020 Vol.
$106,020 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$106,020 Vol.
$106,020 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential Earth impacts over the next century, currently lists no near-Earth objects with credible collision probabilities for 2026, let alone those capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy—equivalent to a major nuclear detonation and roughly the scale of the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide but larger. This absence of tracked threats, combined with comprehensive monitoring by telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detecting over 99% of kilometer-class hazards and most 140-meter objects, underpins the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No." Recent safe close approaches by small asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 GA2 in May affirm ongoing planetary defense efficacy, while record fireball reports this year remain sub-megaton. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an undetected 40-meter-class NEO on a precise trajectory, improbable given survey improvements, with daily CNEOS updates providing the next catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$106,020শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential Earth impacts over the next century, currently lists no near-Earth objects with credible collision probabilities for 2026, let alone those capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy—equivalent to a major nuclear detonation and roughly the scale of the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide but larger. This absence of tracked threats, combined with comprehensive monitoring by telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detecting over 99% of kilometer-class hazards and most 140-meter objects, underpins the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No." Recent safe close approaches by small asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 GA2 in May affirm ongoing planetary defense efficacy, while record fireball reports this year remain sub-megaton. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an undetected 40-meter-class NEO on a precise trajectory, improbable given survey improvements, with daily CNEOS updates providing the next catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$106,020শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential Earth impacts over the next century, currently lists no near-Earth objects with credible collision probabilities for 2026, let alone those capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy—equivalent to a major nuclear detonation and roughly the scale of the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide but larger. This absence of tracked threats, combined with comprehensive monitoring by telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detecting over 99% of kilometer-class hazards and most 140-meter objects, underpins the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No." Recent safe close approaches by small asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 GA2 in May affirm ongoing planetary defense efficacy, while record fireball reports this year remain sub-megaton. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an undetected 40-meter-class NEO on a precise trajectory, improbable given survey improvements, with daily CNEOS updates providing the next catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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