Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification toward a very strong or historic event by late 2026, drives elevated trader odds across the 1.30–1.45°C bins for August global temperature anomaly. Background anthropogenic warming plus the lagged atmospheric response to this event’s rapid strengthening since spring sustain high baseline temperatures, as evidenced by July 2026 tying recent records. Close probabilities among the leading outcomes reflect uncertainty in exact August realization from ENSO timing, regional variability, and short-term atmospheric dynamics, with official monthly analyses from NOAA and NASA expected to resolve the market once complete data are processed.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.34–1.37ºC 39%
>1.45ºC 39%
1.30–1.33ºC 39%
1.38–1.41ºC 39%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
39%
1.34–1.37ºC
39%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
39%
>1.45ºC
39%
1.34–1.37ºC 39%
>1.45ºC 39%
1.30–1.33ºC 39%
1.38–1.41ºC 39%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
>1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification toward a very strong or historic event by late 2026, drives elevated trader odds across the 1.30–1.45°C bins for August global temperature anomaly. Background anthropogenic warming plus the lagged atmospheric response to this event’s rapid strengthening since spring sustain high baseline temperatures, as evidenced by July 2026 tying recent records. Close probabilities among the leading outcomes reflect uncertainty in exact August realization from ENSO timing, regional variability, and short-term atmospheric dynamics, with official monthly analyses from NOAA and NASA expected to resolve the market once complete data are processed.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification toward a very strong or historic event by late 2026, drives elevated trader odds across the 1.30–1.45°C bins for August global temperature anomaly. Background anthropogenic warming plus the lagged atmospheric response to this event’s rapid strengthening since spring sustain high baseline temperatures, as evidenced by July 2026 tying recent records. Close probabilities among the leading outcomes reflect uncertainty in exact August realization from ENSO timing, regional variability, and short-term atmospheric dynamics, with official monthly analyses from NOAA and NASA expected to resolve the market once complete data are processed.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification toward a very strong or historic event by late 2026, drives elevated trader odds across the 1.30–1.45°C bins for August global temperature anomaly. Background anthropogenic warming plus the lagged atmospheric response to this event’s rapid strengthening since spring sustain high baseline temperatures, as evidenced by July 2026 tying recent records. Close probabilities among the leading outcomes reflect uncertainty in exact August realization from ENSO timing, regional variability, and short-term atmospheric dynamics, with official monthly analyses from NOAA and NASA expected to resolve the market once complete data are processed.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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