Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94.3% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, anchored in the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring globally once every 20–50 years per USGS records—with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku rupture at Mw 9.0–9.1. No subduction zones, including Cascadia or Nankai Trough, currently exhibit seismic precursors like rapid strain accumulation or foreshock swarms signaling imminent failure, as confirmed by ongoing USGS and global monitoring networks. Recent activity, such as April 2026's Mw 7.4 off northern Japan, remains far below thresholds for escalation. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen full-plateau rupture on a mature fault, though short-term probabilities remain low amid inherent seismic unpredictability; watch USGS real-time catalogs for shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$191,440 Vol.
$191,440 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,440 Vol.
$191,440 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94.3% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, anchored in the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring globally once every 20–50 years per USGS records—with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku rupture at Mw 9.0–9.1. No subduction zones, including Cascadia or Nankai Trough, currently exhibit seismic precursors like rapid strain accumulation or foreshock swarms signaling imminent failure, as confirmed by ongoing USGS and global monitoring networks. Recent activity, such as April 2026's Mw 7.4 off northern Japan, remains far below thresholds for escalation. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen full-plateau rupture on a mature fault, though short-term probabilities remain low amid inherent seismic unpredictability; watch USGS real-time catalogs for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ভলিউম
$191,440শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94.3% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, anchored in the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring globally once every 20–50 years per USGS records—with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku rupture at Mw 9.0–9.1. No subduction zones, including Cascadia or Nankai Trough, currently exhibit seismic precursors like rapid strain accumulation or foreshock swarms signaling imminent failure, as confirmed by ongoing USGS and global monitoring networks. Recent activity, such as April 2026's Mw 7.4 off northern Japan, remains far below thresholds for escalation. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen full-plateau rupture on a mature fault, though short-term probabilities remain low amid inherent seismic unpredictability; watch USGS real-time catalogs for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ভলিউম
$191,440শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94.3% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, anchored in the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring globally once every 20–50 years per USGS records—with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku rupture at Mw 9.0–9.1. No subduction zones, including Cascadia or Nankai Trough, currently exhibit seismic precursors like rapid strain accumulation or foreshock swarms signaling imminent failure, as confirmed by ongoing USGS and global monitoring networks. Recent activity, such as April 2026's Mw 7.4 off northern Japan, remains far below thresholds for escalation. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen full-plateau rupture on a mature fault, though short-term probabilities remain low amid inherent seismic unpredictability; watch USGS real-time catalogs for shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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