Traders see the narrow spread among 35–37°C outcomes for Chengdu’s August 15 high because official model guidance from the China Meteorological Administration places the maximum near the upper end of the seasonal climatology under lingering subtropical high pressure. Persistent clear to partly cloudy conditions favor strong solar heating, yet isolated afternoon thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—could trim peak temperatures by 1–2°C through increased cloud cover and brief evaporative cooling. Historical mid-August analogs show daily maxima averaging 32–34°C but frequently reaching 36–38°C during heat episodes, with variability driven mainly by the exact timing and coverage of convective activity. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely resolve whether conditions stay hot and dry enough for 37°C or trend slightly cooler.