The near-certain 98.8% market-implied probability against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from fundamental geophysical limits on fault rupture length and energy release. USGS data confirm the largest recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile's 1960 Valdivia quake along a roughly 1,000-kilometer subduction zone; no fault system on Earth is long enough to generate a 10.0, which would require ruptures spanning most of the planet. Ongoing global seismic monitoring through late 2026 shows maximum recent magnitudes well below 8.0, with no precursors or model runs indicating escalation. While measurement revisions or entirely novel tectonic behavior remain theoretically possible though highly improbable, the short remaining timeframe and established magnitude scaling laws underpin trader consensus.