The extreme rarity and physical impossibility of a magnitude 10.0 earthquake drive the near-certain market consensus for "No." USGS analysis shows no known fault is long enough to produce such an event, as magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; the largest recorded quake reached only 9.5 in Chile's 1960 Valdivia event along a roughly 1,000-mile subduction zone. With just months remaining until 2027, ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS reveals no conditions or model projections capable of approaching this threshold. While theoretical discussions note potential upper limits near 9.7–10 in rare combined-rupture scenarios along major trenches, these remain far beyond observed data and current tectonic configurations, reinforcing trader confidence in an outcome grounded in established fault mechanics and historical records.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড10.0 বা 2027 সালের আগে ভূমিকম্প?
10.0 বা 2027 সালের আগে ভূমিকম্প?
হ্যাঁ
<1% সম্ভাবনা
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
<1% সম্ভাবনা
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity and physical impossibility of a magnitude 10.0 earthquake drive the near-certain market consensus for "No." USGS analysis shows no known fault is long enough to produce such an event, as magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; the largest recorded quake reached only 9.5 in Chile's 1960 Valdivia event along a roughly 1,000-mile subduction zone. With just months remaining until 2027, ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS reveals no conditions or model projections capable of approaching this threshold. While theoretical discussions note potential upper limits near 9.7–10 in rare combined-rupture scenarios along major trenches, these remain far beyond observed data and current tectonic configurations, reinforcing trader confidence in an outcome grounded in established fault mechanics and historical records.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
ভলিউম
$789,825শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity and physical impossibility of a magnitude 10.0 earthquake drive the near-certain market consensus for "No." USGS analysis shows no known fault is long enough to produce such an event, as magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; the largest recorded quake reached only 9.5 in Chile's 1960 Valdivia event along a roughly 1,000-mile subduction zone. With just months remaining until 2027, ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS reveals no conditions or model projections capable of approaching this threshold. While theoretical discussions note potential upper limits near 9.7–10 in rare combined-rupture scenarios along major trenches, these remain far beyond observed data and current tectonic configurations, reinforcing trader confidence in an outcome grounded in established fault mechanics and historical records.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ভলিউম
$789,825শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity and physical impossibility of a magnitude 10.0 earthquake drive the near-certain market consensus for "No." USGS analysis shows no known fault is long enough to produce such an event, as magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; the largest recorded quake reached only 9.5 in Chile's 1960 Valdivia event along a roughly 1,000-mile subduction zone. With just months remaining until 2027, ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS reveals no conditions or model projections capable of approaching this threshold. While theoretical discussions note potential upper limits near 9.7–10 in rare combined-rupture scenarios along major trenches, these remain far beyond observed data and current tectonic configurations, reinforcing trader confidence in an outcome grounded in established fault mechanics and historical records.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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