Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible due to Earth's tectonic constraints. Moment magnitude scales, which measure total energy release, cap at around 9.6 theoretically, as no single fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km in rupture length—the limit seen in the record 9.5 Mw Valdivia quake of 1960 Chile. No magnitude 9+ events have struck globally since 2011, with USGS real-time monitoring showing routine seismic activity absent precursors for mega-events. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented multi-fault rupture cascade, defying geological models, amid ongoing worldwide surveillance.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড10.0 বা 2027 সালের আগে ভূমিকম্প?
10.0 বা 2027 সালের আগে ভূমিকম্প?
হ্যাঁ
$602,247 Vol.
$602,247 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$602,247 Vol.
$602,247 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible due to Earth's tectonic constraints. Moment magnitude scales, which measure total energy release, cap at around 9.6 theoretically, as no single fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km in rupture length—the limit seen in the record 9.5 Mw Valdivia quake of 1960 Chile. No magnitude 9+ events have struck globally since 2011, with USGS real-time monitoring showing routine seismic activity absent precursors for mega-events. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented multi-fault rupture cascade, defying geological models, amid ongoing worldwide surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
ভলিউম
$602,247শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible due to Earth's tectonic constraints. Moment magnitude scales, which measure total energy release, cap at around 9.6 theoretically, as no single fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km in rupture length—the limit seen in the record 9.5 Mw Valdivia quake of 1960 Chile. No magnitude 9+ events have struck globally since 2011, with USGS real-time monitoring showing routine seismic activity absent precursors for mega-events. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented multi-fault rupture cascade, defying geological models, amid ongoing worldwide surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ভলিউম
$602,247শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible due to Earth's tectonic constraints. Moment magnitude scales, which measure total energy release, cap at around 9.6 theoretically, as no single fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km in rupture length—the limit seen in the record 9.5 Mw Valdivia quake of 1960 Chile. No magnitude 9+ events have struck globally since 2011, with USGS real-time monitoring showing routine seismic activity absent precursors for mega-events. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented multi-fault rupture cascade, defying geological models, amid ongoing worldwide surveillance.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা