SpaceX’s transition to the Starship V3 architecture, featuring Raptor 3 engines with higher thrust and redesigned ignition systems, plus a new orbital launch pad, remains the dominant factor behind the market’s heavy weighting toward fewer than five successful 2026 flights. Multiple slips—from an early-March target to a May 19 debut for Flight 12—highlight the extended integration and testing timelines required for the clean-sheet propulsion and vehicle upgrades. With the last orbital-class launch occurring in October 2025 and Booster 18 scrapped after a static-fire anomaly, traders see a measured ramp-up in cadence as realistic once the first V3 vehicles prove reliable, tempered by the program’s history of incremental progress and regulatory review cycles.