SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO, which priced shares at $135 to reach an initial $1.75–1.8 trillion valuation before trading near $2 trillion, underpins the 82.1% market-implied odds favoring its higher IPO market cap over OpenAI. Traders cite SpaceX’s established public float, Starlink-driven revenue exceeding $18 billion annually, and recent AI infrastructure moves as durable advantages. In contrast, OpenAI postponed its listing until 2027 to address AI safety and alignment risks, instead pursuing a $30 billion bridge round targeting a $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation after its March round at $852 billion. Revenue momentum near $70 billion annualized has not yet offset the timeline gap or lower prospective scale, leaving limited near-term catalysts that could reverse trader consensus.