NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$300,045শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$300,045শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা