Historical bolide monitoring by NASA and the CTBTO infrasound network shows multi-kiloton atmospheric impacts at or above the 5 kt threshold occur roughly once every few years on average, producing an annual probability well below 50%. With more than seven months of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed event meeting resolution criteria, trader sentiment has consolidated around the “No” outcome at 71% implied probability. Recent near-Earth asteroid approaches tracked by JPL remain small and distant, offering no upward pressure on odds, while model consensus on impact rates continues to favor infrequent occurrences over any single calendar year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
30% সম্ভাবনা
$312,008 Vol.
$312,008 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
30% সম্ভাবনা
$312,008 Vol.
$312,008 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Historical bolide monitoring by NASA and the CTBTO infrasound network shows multi-kiloton atmospheric impacts at or above the 5 kt threshold occur roughly once every few years on average, producing an annual probability well below 50%. With more than seven months of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed event meeting resolution criteria, trader sentiment has consolidated around the “No” outcome at 71% implied probability. Recent near-Earth asteroid approaches tracked by JPL remain small and distant, offering no upward pressure on odds, while model consensus on impact rates continues to favor infrequent occurrences over any single calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$312,008শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Historical bolide monitoring by NASA and the CTBTO infrasound network shows multi-kiloton atmospheric impacts at or above the 5 kt threshold occur roughly once every few years on average, producing an annual probability well below 50%. With more than seven months of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed event meeting resolution criteria, trader sentiment has consolidated around the “No” outcome at 71% implied probability. Recent near-Earth asteroid approaches tracked by JPL remain small and distant, offering no upward pressure on odds, while model consensus on impact rates continues to favor infrequent occurrences over any single calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$312,008শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historical bolide monitoring by NASA and the CTBTO infrasound network shows multi-kiloton atmospheric impacts at or above the 5 kt threshold occur roughly once every few years on average, producing an annual probability well below 50%. With more than seven months of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed event meeting resolution criteria, trader sentiment has consolidated around the “No” outcome at 71% implied probability. Recent near-Earth asteroid approaches tracked by JPL remain small and distant, offering no upward pressure on odds, while model consensus on impact rates continues to favor infrequent occurrences over any single calendar year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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