Storm Prediction Center data shows 2026 off to an exceptionally active start, with 451 confirmed tornadoes by late April—well above the historical year-to-date average of around 350—and preliminary January-March counts 80% higher than normal, ranking eighth-busiest on record. This surge, driven by persistent high instability (CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg) and strong wind shear across the Plains and Midwest amid a transitioning ENSO from neutral toward El Niño, has propelled trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 66% implied probability, exceeding the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 1230. While El Niño may dampen late-season activity, current momentum and SPC's ongoing Day 3–8 outlooks signaling severe potential support elevated full-year expectations, with June peaks ahead.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1150–1199 16.9%
1050–1099 4.8%
950–999 4.6%
1100–1149 2.6%
$71,930 Vol.
$71,930 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
5%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
23%
1200–1249
42%
1250+
59%
1150–1199 16.9%
1050–1099 4.8%
950–999 4.6%
1100–1149 2.6%
$71,930 Vol.
$71,930 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,411 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$2,966 Vol.
5%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
5%
1100–1149
$2,041 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,452 Vol.
23%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
42%
1250+
$16,622 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Storm Prediction Center data shows 2026 off to an exceptionally active start, with 451 confirmed tornadoes by late April—well above the historical year-to-date average of around 350—and preliminary January-March counts 80% higher than normal, ranking eighth-busiest on record. This surge, driven by persistent high instability (CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg) and strong wind shear across the Plains and Midwest amid a transitioning ENSO from neutral toward El Niño, has propelled trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 66% implied probability, exceeding the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 1230. While El Niño may dampen late-season activity, current momentum and SPC's ongoing Day 3–8 outlooks signaling severe potential support elevated full-year expectations, with June peaks ahead.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
ভলিউম
$71,930শেষ তারিখ
Jan 10, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Storm Prediction Center data shows 2026 off to an exceptionally active start, with 451 confirmed tornadoes by late April—well above the historical year-to-date average of around 350—and preliminary January-March counts 80% higher than normal, ranking eighth-busiest on record. This surge, driven by persistent high instability (CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg) and strong wind shear across the Plains and Midwest amid a transitioning ENSO from neutral toward El Niño, has propelled trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 66% implied probability, exceeding the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 1230. While El Niño may dampen late-season activity, current momentum and SPC's ongoing Day 3–8 outlooks signaling severe potential support elevated full-year expectations, with June peaks ahead.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ভলিউম
$71,930শেষ তারিখ
Jan 10, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Storm Prediction Center data shows 2026 off to an exceptionally active start, with 451 confirmed tornadoes by late April—well above the historical year-to-date average of around 350—and preliminary January-March counts 80% higher than normal, ranking eighth-busiest on record. This surge, driven by persistent high instability (CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg) and strong wind shear across the Plains and Midwest amid a transitioning ENSO from neutral toward El Niño, has propelled trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 66% implied probability, exceeding the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 1230. While El Niño may dampen late-season activity, current momentum and SPC's ongoing Day 3–8 outlooks signaling severe potential support elevated full-year expectations, with June peaks ahead.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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