Recent short-range guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows a mostly cloudy regime over Seoul and Incheon on August 16 with a forecast maximum near 33 °C, though other global models and blended products indicate 29–31 °C amid modest humidity and light easterly flow. Trader consensus clustering at 29–30 °C reflects the narrow spread between these runs, where increased cloud cover and a low probability of afternoon convection could suppress peak readings by 1–2 °C relative to clearer scenarios. Historical mid-August climatology for the region centers on 30–32 °C, so the market-implied odds hinge on whether steering patterns allow greater marine influence from the Yellow Sea or maintain warmer inland air. Updated KMA and ECMWF runs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten this range ahead of market resolution.