The market-implied odds strongly favor no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, consistent with three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) having formed through mid-August without any reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes), citing factors such as El Niño conditions and below-average sea-surface temperatures that have suppressed early development. Current National Hurricane Center guidance indicates no tropical cyclone formation likely over the next seven days, aligning with the low probabilities assigned to mid-August windows. Historical analogs show the climatological peak for first hurricanes often occurs later, and the absence of active disturbances or favorable steering patterns supports trader consensus around delayed intensification. Updated model runs and the next NOAA briefing could shift odds if conditions rapidly organize.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026 71%
August 27 to August 31, 2026 24%
August 22 to August 26, 2026 8%
August 17 to August 21, 2026 1.7%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 17, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
<1%
August 17 to August 21, 2026
2%
August 22 to August 26, 2026
8%
August 27 to August 31, 2026
19%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
71%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026 71%
August 27 to August 31, 2026 24%
August 22 to August 26, 2026 8%
August 17 to August 21, 2026 1.7%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 17, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
$427 Vol.
<1%
August 17 to August 21, 2026
$167 Vol.
2%
August 22 to August 26, 2026
$160 Vol.
8%
August 27 to August 31, 2026
$753 Vol.
19%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
$1,062 Vol.
71%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/The market-implied odds strongly favor no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, consistent with three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) having formed through mid-August without any reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes), citing factors such as El Niño conditions and below-average sea-surface temperatures that have suppressed early development. Current National Hurricane Center guidance indicates no tropical cyclone formation likely over the next seven days, aligning with the low probabilities assigned to mid-August windows. Historical analogs show the climatological peak for first hurricanes often occurs later, and the absence of active disturbances or favorable steering patterns supports trader consensus around delayed intensification. Updated model runs and the next NOAA briefing could shift odds if conditions rapidly organize.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
ভলিউম
$2,569শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/The market-implied odds strongly favor no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, consistent with three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) having formed through mid-August without any reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes), citing factors such as El Niño conditions and below-average sea-surface temperatures that have suppressed early development. Current National Hurricane Center guidance indicates no tropical cyclone formation likely over the next seven days, aligning with the low probabilities assigned to mid-August windows. Historical analogs show the climatological peak for first hurricanes often occurs later, and the absence of active disturbances or favorable steering patterns supports trader consensus around delayed intensification. Updated model runs and the next NOAA briefing could shift odds if conditions rapidly organize.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ভলিউম
$2,569শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds strongly favor no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, consistent with three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) having formed through mid-August without any reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes), citing factors such as El Niño conditions and below-average sea-surface temperatures that have suppressed early development. Current National Hurricane Center guidance indicates no tropical cyclone formation likely over the next seven days, aligning with the low probabilities assigned to mid-August windows. Historical analogs show the climatological peak for first hurricanes often occurs later, and the absence of active disturbances or favorable steering patterns supports trader consensus around delayed intensification. Updated model runs and the next NOAA briefing could shift odds if conditions rapidly organize.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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