Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, the leading market outcome. Persistent above-average air temperatures across the central Arctic and marginal seas, combined with reduced multiyear ice, have accelerated ice loss since June, keeping daily extents 5th-lowest on record through early August. Model consensus from NSIDC and OSI SAF data shows typical late-summer melt rates of 50,000–80,000 square kilometers per day, tempered by uncertainty in high-pressure patterns that could enhance or slow retreat. Traders weigh these observational trends against historical analogs like 2020–2025 minima around 4.0–4.9 million square kilometers, with NSIDC September updates expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 37.8%
4.6-4.8m sq km 29.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 22.1%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.0%
$67,135 Vol.
$67,135 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
12%
4.0-4.2m sq km
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
22%
4.4-4.6m sq km
38%
4.6-4.8m sq km
29%
4.8-5m sq km
3%
5m+ sq km
6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 37.8%
4.6-4.8m sq km 29.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 22.1%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.0%
$67,135 Vol.
$67,135 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,399 Vol.
12%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,551 Vol.
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,920 Vol.
22%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 Vol.
38%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,805 Vol.
29%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,876 Vol.
3%
5m+ sq km
$14,455 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, the leading market outcome. Persistent above-average air temperatures across the central Arctic and marginal seas, combined with reduced multiyear ice, have accelerated ice loss since June, keeping daily extents 5th-lowest on record through early August. Model consensus from NSIDC and OSI SAF data shows typical late-summer melt rates of 50,000–80,000 square kilometers per day, tempered by uncertainty in high-pressure patterns that could enhance or slow retreat. Traders weigh these observational trends against historical analogs like 2020–2025 minima around 4.0–4.9 million square kilometers, with NSIDC September updates expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$67,135শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, the leading market outcome. Persistent above-average air temperatures across the central Arctic and marginal seas, combined with reduced multiyear ice, have accelerated ice loss since June, keeping daily extents 5th-lowest on record through early August. Model consensus from NSIDC and OSI SAF data shows typical late-summer melt rates of 50,000–80,000 square kilometers per day, tempered by uncertainty in high-pressure patterns that could enhance or slow retreat. Traders weigh these observational trends against historical analogs like 2020–2025 minima around 4.0–4.9 million square kilometers, with NSIDC September updates expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ভলিউম
$67,135শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, the leading market outcome. Persistent above-average air temperatures across the central Arctic and marginal seas, combined with reduced multiyear ice, have accelerated ice loss since June, keeping daily extents 5th-lowest on record through early August. Model consensus from NSIDC and OSI SAF data shows typical late-summer melt rates of 50,000–80,000 square kilometers per day, tempered by uncertainty in high-pressure patterns that could enhance or slow retreat. Traders weigh these observational trends against historical analogs like 2020–2025 minima around 4.0–4.9 million square kilometers, with NSIDC September updates expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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