Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNatural Disaster in 2026?
$240,662 Vol.
$240,662 Vol.
$240,662 Vol.
$240,662 Vol.
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড


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