Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: USGS reports no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide—the strongest was a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March with low shaking impact; Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs no VEI ≥6 eruptions, events rarer than once per decade; NASA fireball network detects no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts; and National Hurricane Center confirms zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as the Atlantic season starts June 1. Recent M7+ quakes in Japan and Indonesia caused limited damage, falling short of thresholds. Colorado State University forecasts somewhat below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, though seismic and tropical cyclone uncertainties persist—watch NOAA's imminent 2026 outlook for potential shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,251 Vol.
$218,251 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,251 Vol.
$218,251 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: USGS reports no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide—the strongest was a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March with low shaking impact; Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs no VEI ≥6 eruptions, events rarer than once per decade; NASA fireball network detects no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts; and National Hurricane Center confirms zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as the Atlantic season starts June 1. Recent M7+ quakes in Japan and Indonesia caused limited damage, falling short of thresholds. Colorado State University forecasts somewhat below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, though seismic and tropical cyclone uncertainties persist—watch NOAA's imminent 2026 outlook for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$218,251শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: USGS reports no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide—the strongest was a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March with low shaking impact; Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs no VEI ≥6 eruptions, events rarer than once per decade; NASA fireball network detects no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts; and National Hurricane Center confirms zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as the Atlantic season starts June 1. Recent M7+ quakes in Japan and Indonesia caused limited damage, falling short of thresholds. Colorado State University forecasts somewhat below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, though seismic and tropical cyclone uncertainties persist—watch NOAA's imminent 2026 outlook for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ভলিউম
$218,251শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through early May per authoritative sources: USGS reports no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide—the strongest was a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March with low shaking impact; Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs no VEI ≥6 eruptions, events rarer than once per decade; NASA fireball network detects no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts; and National Hurricane Center confirms zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as the Atlantic season starts June 1. Recent M7+ quakes in Japan and Indonesia caused limited damage, falling short of thresholds. Colorado State University forecasts somewhat below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, though seismic and tropical cyclone uncertainties persist—watch NOAA's imminent 2026 outlook for potential shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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