Trader consensus on a 93.5% implied probability of no new pandemic in 2026 reflects the absence of sustained human-to-human transmission from monitored zoonotic threats through mid-year. Official surveillance by WHO and CDC shows contained events such as Bundibugyo Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a limited Andes hantavirus cluster, and ongoing but non-pandemic H5N1 avian influenza circulation in animals, with no evidence of efficient respiratory spread or exponential case growth exceeding baseline seasonal patterns. Strengthened post-COVID systems, including wastewater monitoring and the 2025 Pandemic Agreement, support rapid detection. Realistic scenarios that could alter this include antigenic shifts in influenza or coronavirus strains enabling sustained transmission, or undetected spillover from pathogens like Nipah or novel canine coronaviruses before enhanced diagnostics scale.