Trader consensus assigns an implied 79.5% probability to no new pandemic before 2028 because current CDC and WHO surveillance shows no novel pathogen achieving sustained human-to-human transmission capable of global spread. Avian influenza H5N1 continues with animal outbreaks and only 71 sporadic U.S. human cases since 2024, none involving person-to-person spread, while other threats like clade I mpox, hantavirus clusters, and dengue remain regionally contained without exponential growth or reassortment. Post-COVID enhancements in genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have lowered undetected spillover risks, though seasonal respiratory increases and zoonotic reservoirs keep longer-term uncertainty in play ahead of the 2026–2027 flu season.