Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system's vigilant monitoring, which lists zero potential impacts for the year amid comprehensive near-Earth asteroid tracking. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record 2,322 reports per the American Meteor Society, with 40 events drawing 50+ witnesses and sonic booms—stemmed from clustered sporadic meteoroids, but peak energies remained low at 0.25 kt over Ohio on March 17 and 0.026 kt near Houston on March 21, per NASA fireball data. Enhanced satellite detection (e.g., GOES) and AI reporting amplified visibility without altering low baseline risk, though undetected small bolides pose residual uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system's vigilant monitoring, which lists zero potential impacts for the year amid comprehensive near-Earth asteroid tracking. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record 2,322 reports per the American Meteor Society, with 40 events drawing 50+ witnesses and sonic booms—stemmed from clustered sporadic meteoroids, but peak energies remained low at 0.25 kt over Ohio on March 17 and 0.026 kt near Houston on March 21, per NASA fireball data. Enhanced satellite detection (e.g., GOES) and AI reporting amplified visibility without altering low baseline risk, though undetected small bolides pose residual uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
ভলিউম
$153,356শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system's vigilant monitoring, which lists zero potential impacts for the year amid comprehensive near-Earth asteroid tracking. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record 2,322 reports per the American Meteor Society, with 40 events drawing 50+ witnesses and sonic booms—stemmed from clustered sporadic meteoroids, but peak energies remained low at 0.25 kt over Ohio on March 17 and 0.026 kt near Houston on March 21, per NASA fireball data. Enhanced satellite detection (e.g., GOES) and AI reporting amplified visibility without altering low baseline risk, though undetected small bolides pose residual uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$153,356শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system's vigilant monitoring, which lists zero potential impacts for the year amid comprehensive near-Earth asteroid tracking. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record 2,322 reports per the American Meteor Society, with 40 events drawing 50+ witnesses and sonic booms—stemmed from clustered sporadic meteoroids, but peak energies remained low at 0.25 kt over Ohio on March 17 and 0.026 kt near Houston on March 21, per NASA fireball data. Enhanced satellite detection (e.g., GOES) and AI reporting amplified visibility without altering low baseline risk, though undetected small bolides pose residual uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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