Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because major meteor strikes of 10kt or greater remain statistically rare events, with annual base rates far below 1% based on NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data. No known near-Earth objects currently show credible impact trajectories for 2026, and ongoing Sentry system scans plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have only refined distant risks without flagging near-term threats. Small asteroids continue to produce harmless close approaches, but none approach the energy threshold for market resolution. Key catalysts ahead include continued radar and optical surveys through year-end, which could further reduce uncertainty but are unlikely to alter the low-probability outlook absent an undetected large object.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
10% সম্ভাবনা
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% সম্ভাবনা
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because major meteor strikes of 10kt or greater remain statistically rare events, with annual base rates far below 1% based on NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data. No known near-Earth objects currently show credible impact trajectories for 2026, and ongoing Sentry system scans plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have only refined distant risks without flagging near-term threats. Small asteroids continue to produce harmless close approaches, but none approach the energy threshold for market resolution. Key catalysts ahead include continued radar and optical surveys through year-end, which could further reduce uncertainty but are unlikely to alter the low-probability outlook absent an undetected large object.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
ভলিউম
$178,784শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because major meteor strikes of 10kt or greater remain statistically rare events, with annual base rates far below 1% based on NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data. No known near-Earth objects currently show credible impact trajectories for 2026, and ongoing Sentry system scans plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have only refined distant risks without flagging near-term threats. Small asteroids continue to produce harmless close approaches, but none approach the energy threshold for market resolution. Key catalysts ahead include continued radar and optical surveys through year-end, which could further reduce uncertainty but are unlikely to alter the low-probability outlook absent an undetected large object.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$178,784শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because major meteor strikes of 10kt or greater remain statistically rare events, with annual base rates far below 1% based on NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data. No known near-Earth objects currently show credible impact trajectories for 2026, and ongoing Sentry system scans plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have only refined distant risks without flagging near-term threats. Small asteroids continue to produce harmless close approaches, but none approach the energy threshold for market resolution. Key catalysts ahead include continued radar and optical surveys through year-end, which could further reduce uncertainty but are unlikely to alter the low-probability outlook absent an undetected large object.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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