Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically several per century worldwide, with none confirmed since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS monitoring across dozens of restless sites, including Kīlauea at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive summit fountaining and Great Sitkin at ORANGE for low-level dome growth, reveals only routine seismic swarms, gas emissions, and minor deformation, far below thresholds for plinian-scale explosions requiring massive magma chamber recharge. Halfway through 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 eruptions globally, all VEI ≤3. Realistic challenges include sudden caldera inflation or intense harmonic tremor at systems like Campi Flegrei or Axial Seamount, though current data show no escalation; track daily USGS notices for shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$80,358 Vol.
$80,358 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
$80,358 Vol.
$80,358 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically several per century worldwide, with none confirmed since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS monitoring across dozens of restless sites, including Kīlauea at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive summit fountaining and Great Sitkin at ORANGE for low-level dome growth, reveals only routine seismic swarms, gas emissions, and minor deformation, far below thresholds for plinian-scale explosions requiring massive magma chamber recharge. Halfway through 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 eruptions globally, all VEI ≤3. Realistic challenges include sudden caldera inflation or intense harmonic tremor at systems like Campi Flegrei or Axial Seamount, though current data show no escalation; track daily USGS notices for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$80,358শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically several per century worldwide, with none confirmed since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS monitoring across dozens of restless sites, including Kīlauea at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive summit fountaining and Great Sitkin at ORANGE for low-level dome growth, reveals only routine seismic swarms, gas emissions, and minor deformation, far below thresholds for plinian-scale explosions requiring massive magma chamber recharge. Halfway through 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 eruptions globally, all VEI ≤3. Realistic challenges include sudden caldera inflation or intense harmonic tremor at systems like Campi Flegrei or Axial Seamount, though current data show no escalation; track daily USGS notices for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$80,358শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically several per century worldwide, with none confirmed since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS monitoring across dozens of restless sites, including Kīlauea at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive summit fountaining and Great Sitkin at ORANGE for low-level dome growth, reveals only routine seismic swarms, gas emissions, and minor deformation, far below thresholds for plinian-scale explosions requiring massive magma chamber recharge. Halfway through 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 eruptions globally, all VEI ≤3. Realistic challenges include sudden caldera inflation or intense harmonic tremor at systems like Campi Flegrei or Axial Seamount, though current data show no escalation; track daily USGS notices for shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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