**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, supporting the market's 53% implied probability for zero.** Globally, such events remain infrequent; VEI 4 eruptions (roughly 0.1 km³ ejecta, plumes >10 km) average fewer than one per year historically, with VEI 5+ far rarer. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through recent months list dozens of active volcanoes but assign only VEI ≤3 to notable 2026 activity, including Dukono's May explosive phase (VEI 3 per GDACS) and Kanlaon's repeated moderate events with 2 km plumes. Official monitoring by PHIVOLCS, USGS, and GVP shows ongoing unrest and smaller eruptions without escalation indicators. Remaining months carry low but non-zero risk of rapid intensification at restless systems, though model consensus and current observations favor continuation of the subdued pattern.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 সালে কতগুলি বড় আগ্নেয়গিরির অগ্ন্যুৎপাত (VEI ≥4) হয়েছে?
2026 সালে কতগুলি বড় আগ্নেয়গিরির অগ্ন্যুৎপাত (VEI ≥4) হয়েছে?
০ 55%
১ 20%
২ 3.6%
৫+ 1.0%
$1,156,015 Vol.
$1,156,015 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
০
55%
১
20%
২
4%
৩
1%
৪
1%
৫+
1%
০ 55%
১ 20%
২ 3.6%
৫+ 1.0%
$1,156,015 Vol.
$1,156,015 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
০
$499,077 Vol.
55%
১
$273,903 Vol.
20%
২
$40,867 Vol.
4%
৩
$31,649 Vol.
1%
৪
$35,000 Vol.
1%
৫+
$275,520 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, supporting the market's 53% implied probability for zero.** Globally, such events remain infrequent; VEI 4 eruptions (roughly 0.1 km³ ejecta, plumes >10 km) average fewer than one per year historically, with VEI 5+ far rarer. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through recent months list dozens of active volcanoes but assign only VEI ≤3 to notable 2026 activity, including Dukono's May explosive phase (VEI 3 per GDACS) and Kanlaon's repeated moderate events with 2 km plumes. Official monitoring by PHIVOLCS, USGS, and GVP shows ongoing unrest and smaller eruptions without escalation indicators. Remaining months carry low but non-zero risk of rapid intensification at restless systems, though model consensus and current observations favor continuation of the subdued pattern.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,156,015শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, supporting the market's 53% implied probability for zero.** Globally, such events remain infrequent; VEI 4 eruptions (roughly 0.1 km³ ejecta, plumes >10 km) average fewer than one per year historically, with VEI 5+ far rarer. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through recent months list dozens of active volcanoes but assign only VEI ≤3 to notable 2026 activity, including Dukono's May explosive phase (VEI 3 per GDACS) and Kanlaon's repeated moderate events with 2 km plumes. Official monitoring by PHIVOLCS, USGS, and GVP shows ongoing unrest and smaller eruptions without escalation indicators. Remaining months carry low but non-zero risk of rapid intensification at restless systems, though model consensus and current observations favor continuation of the subdued pattern.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$1,156,015শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, supporting the market's 53% implied probability for zero.** Globally, such events remain infrequent; VEI 4 eruptions (roughly 0.1 km³ ejecta, plumes >10 km) average fewer than one per year historically, with VEI 5+ far rarer. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through recent months list dozens of active volcanoes but assign only VEI ≤3 to notable 2026 activity, including Dukono's May explosive phase (VEI 3 per GDACS) and Kanlaon's repeated moderate events with 2 km plumes. Official monitoring by PHIVOLCS, USGS, and GVP shows ongoing unrest and smaller eruptions without escalation indicators. Remaining months carry low but non-zero risk of rapid intensification at restless systems, though model consensus and current observations favor continuation of the subdued pattern.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা