No VEI ≥4 eruptions have been recorded so far in 2026, supporting the market’s strong preference for zero or one such event. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through late March show 47 ongoing or new eruptions worldwide, yet all maintain lower explosivity levels typical of current activity at sites like Semeru, Sheveluch, and Great Sitkin. Historical frequency of VEI ≥4 events has remained stable at roughly one to three per year over recent decades, driven by the rarity of sufficient magma chamber pressurization and conduit conditions for Plinian-style explosions. With no new model runs or seismic indicators signaling rapid escalation in the first half of the year, traders assign only modest odds to additional large eruptions before December. Continued weekly reports from the USGS and GVP will track any shifts in plume height, sulfur emissions, or unrest that could alter resolution thresholds.