The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's record-low activity through mid-September drives the 97.4% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Only five tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, producing just 4.4 accumulated cyclone energy—about 7% of the historical average—amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and atmospheric stability. Official NOAA and National Hurricane Center data show no systems on the horizon near the climatological peak, with below-normal forecasts for the remaining season extending through November 30. While late-season development remains possible in October or November, the combination of suppressed conditions, depleted ocean heat content in key formation regions, and the narrow window before year-end makes a major hurricane reaching Category 5 intensity (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and striking the U.S. highly improbable.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
3% সম্ভাবনা
$142,081 Vol.
$142,081 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% সম্ভাবনা
$142,081 Vol.
$142,081 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's record-low activity through mid-September drives the 97.4% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Only five tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, producing just 4.4 accumulated cyclone energy—about 7% of the historical average—amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and atmospheric stability. Official NOAA and National Hurricane Center data show no systems on the horizon near the climatological peak, with below-normal forecasts for the remaining season extending through November 30. While late-season development remains possible in October or November, the combination of suppressed conditions, depleted ocean heat content in key formation regions, and the narrow window before year-end makes a major hurricane reaching Category 5 intensity (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and striking the U.S. highly improbable.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$142,081শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's record-low activity through mid-September drives the 97.4% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Only five tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, producing just 4.4 accumulated cyclone energy—about 7% of the historical average—amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and atmospheric stability. Official NOAA and National Hurricane Center data show no systems on the horizon near the climatological peak, with below-normal forecasts for the remaining season extending through November 30. While late-season development remains possible in October or November, the combination of suppressed conditions, depleted ocean heat content in key formation regions, and the narrow window before year-end makes a major hurricane reaching Category 5 intensity (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and striking the U.S. highly improbable.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ভলিউম
$142,081শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's record-low activity through mid-September drives the 97.4% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Only five tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, producing just 4.4 accumulated cyclone energy—about 7% of the historical average—amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and atmospheric stability. Official NOAA and National Hurricane Center data show no systems on the horizon near the climatological peak, with below-normal forecasts for the remaining season extending through November 30. While late-season development remains possible in October or November, the combination of suppressed conditions, depleted ocean heat content in key formation regions, and the narrow window before year-end makes a major hurricane reaching Category 5 intensity (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and striking the U.S. highly improbable.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা