Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite a list encompassing President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority post-midterms, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake. Recent de-escalations bolster this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets avoided qualifying as invasion. With seven months remaining until December 31 resolution, uncertainties persist around a Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical GOP base rates suggest low odds of Senate supermajority amid swing state dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডকখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
কখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
হ্যাঁ
$557,377 Vol.
$557,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$557,377 Vol.
$557,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite a list encompassing President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority post-midterms, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake. Recent de-escalations bolster this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets avoided qualifying as invasion. With seven months remaining until December 31 resolution, uncertainties persist around a Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical GOP base rates suggest low odds of Senate supermajority amid swing state dynamics.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$557,377শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite a list encompassing President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority post-midterms, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake. Recent de-escalations bolster this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets avoided qualifying as invasion. With seven months remaining until December 31 resolution, uncertainties persist around a Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical GOP base rates suggest low odds of Senate supermajority amid swing state dynamics.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ভলিউম
$557,377শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite a list encompassing President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority post-midterms, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake. Recent de-escalations bolster this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets avoided qualifying as invasion. With seven months remaining until December 31 resolution, uncertainties persist around a Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical GOP base rates suggest low odds of Senate supermajority amid swing state dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা