Target’s Q2 2026 comparable sales rose 3.8% year-over-year, driven by 3.6% traffic growth and broad gains across beauty, hardlines, and food and beverage, supporting the 62.5% market-implied odds for 3%–5% Q3 growth. Traders appear to price in continued momentum from merchandising resets, store technology investments, and digital initiatives including same-day delivery, even as apparel and home categories remain softer. The company raised full-year net sales guidance to around 5% after the August report, reflecting improved execution and category mix shifts. With Q3 earnings scheduled for November 18, near-term sentiment hinges on whether holiday preparation and discretionary trends sustain the recent rebound or revert toward prior softness. The 18.5% probability assigned to 5%+ growth captures upside from non-merchandise revenue expansion, while lower buckets reflect risks from consumer caution and category-specific pressure.