Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGoogle 50%
Anthropic 28%
OpenAI 14%
Z.ai <1%
$195,291 Vol.
$195,291 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
50%
Anthropic
28%
OpenAI
14%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 50%
Anthropic 28%
OpenAI 14%
Z.ai <1%
$195,291 Vol.
$195,291 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$32,291 Vol.
50%
Anthropic
$57,062 Vol.
28%
OpenAI
$22,370 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$12,156 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$10,356 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$12,025 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$11,476 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$6,400 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,346 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$5,734 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$2,769 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$9,130 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,097 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,617 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,461 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
ভলিউম
$195,291শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ভলিউম
$195,291শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা