Alaska's August 18 top-four primary features incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, Democrat Mary Peltola, a same-name Republican challenger, and over a dozen others, with the top four advancing to a ranked-choice general election. Peltola's substantial fundraising edge and recent general-election polls showing her within a few points of Sullivan have shaped trader views on primary positioning, while the crowded field and Alaska's nonpartisan format raise the chance of a fragmented result. The leading market outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether Peltola finishes first by a narrow margin or another scenario prevails amid low-polling candidates and limited primary-specific data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPeltola 3–6 % 40%
Peltola <3% 21%
Peltola 6–9 % 18%
Sullivan <3% 8%
$10,500 Vol.
$10,500 Vol.

Peltola 15%+
2%

Peltola 12–15 %
5%

Peltola 9–12 %
6%

Peltola 6–9 %
18%

Peltola 3–6 %
40%

Peltola <3%
21%

Sullivan <3%
8%

Sullivan 3–6 %
4%

Sullivan 6–9 %
2%

Sullivan 9–12%
1%

Sullivan 12 %+
1%
Peltola 3–6 % 40%
Peltola <3% 21%
Peltola 6–9 % 18%
Sullivan <3% 8%
$10,500 Vol.
$10,500 Vol.

Peltola 15%+
2%

Peltola 12–15 %
5%

Peltola 9–12 %
6%

Peltola 6–9 %
18%

Peltola 3–6 %
40%

Peltola <3%
21%

Sullivan <3%
8%

Sullivan 3–6 %
4%

Sullivan 6–9 %
2%

Sullivan 9–12%
1%

Sullivan 12 %+
1%
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alaska's August 18 top-four primary features incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, Democrat Mary Peltola, a same-name Republican challenger, and over a dozen others, with the top four advancing to a ranked-choice general election. Peltola's substantial fundraising edge and recent general-election polls showing her within a few points of Sullivan have shaped trader views on primary positioning, while the crowded field and Alaska's nonpartisan format raise the chance of a fragmented result. The leading market outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether Peltola finishes first by a narrow margin or another scenario prevails amid low-polling candidates and limited primary-specific data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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