Recent inflation readings near 6.3% year-over-year, driven partly by one-off fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions, prompted the Bank of Russia to hold the key rate at 14% in September after smaller cuts earlier in the summer. Traders weigh this against moderate economic growth, still-elevated inflation expectations, and fiscal policy that remains more expansionary than prior forecasts, limiting room for aggressive easing. The narrow gap between a 25 basis point cut and no change reflects uncertainty over whether underlying disinflation will prove durable by December or if second-round effects and budget dynamics will keep policy on hold. Updated fiscal parameters expected by late September and incoming inflation data could shift the balance toward either outcome.