Recent polling from sources including the New York Times/Siena and RealClearPolitics averages shows both the Alaska and Texas 2026 Senate races as toss-ups, with Democrats holding narrow leads in Republican-leaning states. In the latest Times/Siena survey, Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by 7 points in Alaska, while Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 6 points in the open Texas seat. Broader averages place Alaska around D+1.8 to D+2.6 and Texas around D+2.8, with additional surveys showing even tighter or tied results in Texas. Traders assign Texas a 73% chance of producing the smaller margin due to its open-seat dynamics, Paxton's documented vulnerabilities, greater polling volatility in the larger state, and Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, which can alter final head-to-head spreads. Election Day is November 3, 2026.