Recent polling and forecaster adjustments explain trader consensus favoring Kansas as the closer contest. In Georgia, Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff maintains consistent double-digit leads over Republican Mike Collins across multiple surveys, with Ossoff often clearing 50 percent amid strong fundraising and a shift by Cook Political Report to “Likely Democrat.” Kansas shows far tighter results between Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, with recent polls ranging from a Hamilton lead of 1–2 points to a small Marshall advantage; Cook moved the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” in response. These patterns, combined with Kansas remaining competitive in a state that favored Republicans in prior cycles, underpin the current implied probabilities.