The U.S. fuel blockade and expanded sanctions imposed since January 2026 have deepened Cuba’s economic crisis, triggering localized protests, widespread blackouts, and shortages that have prompted increased government repression and hundreds of detentions. Despite these pressures and Washington’s explicit pursuit of leadership change modeled on the earlier Venezuela intervention, Cuban security structures remain cohesive, enabling the Communist Party leadership under Miguel Díaz-Canel to maintain control through the summer. Analysts note that internal power centers show limited signs of fracture, with protests remaining contained rather than escalating into nationwide upheaval. This combination of resilience against external coercion and the absence of decisive internal shifts underpins trader consensus that a full regime collapse by year-end remains unlikely.