Sustained nationwide protests since late 2025, initially driven by currency collapse and inflation before broadening into political demands, have produced thousands of arrests and reported casualties without fracturing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or other security institutions. The regime survived a 2026 U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign and the February killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba assuming power while maintaining institutional continuity and pursuing limited negotiations on nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz access. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent against regime change before 2027 reflects the absence of elite defections or coordinated opposition capable of toppling the system amid ongoing sanctions and blockades. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden internal military splits, renewed large-scale external strikes, or rapid economic breakdown severe enough to erode coercive capacity before the end of 2026.