The swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps institutional control following Ali Khamenei's death, has reinforced regime continuity despite U.S.-Israeli strikes and proxy setbacks. Reza Pahlavi's March CPAC appeals for transitional leadership and regime change, along with his April-May calls for defections and protests, have not produced the internal uprisings or elite fractures needed to position him as de facto head of state by year-end. Fragmented opposition groups and persistent repression inside Iran further limit pathways for an exiled figure to consolidate power. Traders price this outcome at just 7.6% implied probability, viewing the current leadership transition and military cohesion as durable barriers absent a far more decisive collapse.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird Reza Pahlavi 2026 den Iran anführen?
Wird Reza Pahlavi 2026 den Iran anführen?
Ja
$1,173,436 Vol.
$1,173,436 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,173,436 Vol.
$1,173,436 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps institutional control following Ali Khamenei's death, has reinforced regime continuity despite U.S.-Israeli strikes and proxy setbacks. Reza Pahlavi's March CPAC appeals for transitional leadership and regime change, along with his April-May calls for defections and protests, have not produced the internal uprisings or elite fractures needed to position him as de facto head of state by year-end. Fragmented opposition groups and persistent repression inside Iran further limit pathways for an exiled figure to consolidate power. Traders price this outcome at just 7.6% implied probability, viewing the current leadership transition and military cohesion as durable barriers absent a far more decisive collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volumen
$1,173,436Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps institutional control following Ali Khamenei's death, has reinforced regime continuity despite U.S.-Israeli strikes and proxy setbacks. Reza Pahlavi's March CPAC appeals for transitional leadership and regime change, along with his April-May calls for defections and protests, have not produced the internal uprisings or elite fractures needed to position him as de facto head of state by year-end. Fragmented opposition groups and persistent repression inside Iran further limit pathways for an exiled figure to consolidate power. Traders price this outcome at just 7.6% implied probability, viewing the current leadership transition and military cohesion as durable barriers absent a far more decisive collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,173,436Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps institutional control following Ali Khamenei's death, has reinforced regime continuity despite U.S.-Israeli strikes and proxy setbacks. Reza Pahlavi's March CPAC appeals for transitional leadership and regime change, along with his April-May calls for defections and protests, have not produced the internal uprisings or elite fractures needed to position him as de facto head of state by year-end. Fragmented opposition groups and persistent repression inside Iran further limit pathways for an exiled figure to consolidate power. Traders price this outcome at just 7.6% implied probability, viewing the current leadership transition and military cohesion as durable barriers absent a far more decisive collapse.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen