The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition amid active conflict has anchored trader views, reflected in related markets pricing Mojtaba at roughly 81% odds of remaining head of state through year-end 2026. Key drivers include the regime's security elite consensus, Mojtaba's limited public profile since the change, and low probabilities attached to near-term further upheaval or regime collapse. Diplomatic talks, military developments, or internal power shifts before late 2026 or mid-2027 represent the main variables that could alter implied probabilities for additional leadership turnover by those dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$23,472,370 Vol.
15. Aug. 2026
15. August
<1%
22. August
1%
31. August
2%
30. September
6%
31. Oktober
10%
30. November
13%
31. Dezember
18%
30. Juni 2027
26%
$23,472,370 Vol.
15. August
$60,914 Vol.
<1%
22. August
$28,815 Vol.
1%
31. August
$1,147,782 Vol.
2%
30. September
$438,327 Vol.
6%
31. Oktober
$8,752 Vol.
10%
30. November
$9,231 Vol.
13%
31. Dezember
$3,995,315 Vol.
18%
30. Juni 2027
$236,858 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition amid active conflict has anchored trader views, reflected in related markets pricing Mojtaba at roughly 81% odds of remaining head of state through year-end 2026. Key drivers include the regime's security elite consensus, Mojtaba's limited public profile since the change, and low probabilities attached to near-term further upheaval or regime collapse. Diplomatic talks, military developments, or internal power shifts before late 2026 or mid-2027 represent the main variables that could alter implied probabilities for additional leadership turnover by those dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volumen
$23,472,370Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition amid active conflict has anchored trader views, reflected in related markets pricing Mojtaba at roughly 81% odds of remaining head of state through year-end 2026. Key drivers include the regime's security elite consensus, Mojtaba's limited public profile since the change, and low probabilities attached to near-term further upheaval or regime collapse. Diplomatic talks, military developments, or internal power shifts before late 2026 or mid-2027 represent the main variables that could alter implied probabilities for additional leadership turnover by those dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,472,370Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition amid active conflict has anchored trader views, reflected in related markets pricing Mojtaba at roughly 81% odds of remaining head of state through year-end 2026. Key drivers include the regime's security elite consensus, Mojtaba's limited public profile since the change, and low probabilities attached to near-term further upheaval or regime collapse. Diplomatic talks, military developments, or internal power shifts before late 2026 or mid-2027 represent the main variables that could alter implied probabilities for additional leadership turnover by those dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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